Foreign Intervention in two civil wars
Focus of the topic
we are "evaluating the effect of foreing intervention on civil wars",
effectを示すのが不足しているっぽい
こう言うsignificant factorがありましたという提示はまあまあできている（十分ではないかもだけど）
ただ、それがsignificantだったという証拠が不足していた
こういうeffectがありました、という説明
もしくは、ベトナムで米軍撤退したらすぐnorthに占領されました、みたいな逆の証拠でも
Background Info (Introduction)
Spanish
Unstalbe condition, power alterniting between 2 wings
Proxy war between different ideologies
Conflict of ideologies claimed a lot of international attention
intervention of nations for each ideologies
some other nations avoided the intervention
Vietnam
1964 Gulf Of Tonkin, US officially entering the war
mention about past US presidents
Truman supporting French
Eisenhower supporting the South and Diem
maybe also talk about Kennedy
Body
Spanish
Nationalist support
Right ideologies: Germany, Italy, Portugal
Luftwaffe supported in the early stage
Condor Legion carried tropps from Spanish Morocco to mainland Spain
Also helpe bombing in northern reegions, which was crucial
Italy supported 750 aircrafts, 150 tanks, 75000 troops
Neutral state nations, US and Britain
support to small extent, allowed use of Gibraltar
Therefore: gained large benefit.
Republican support
In contrast, gained samll support from USSR (left)
difference of support gained, so affected the outcome
USSR,
supporting communist movements
sold some weapons to Republican gov.
asked to pay for support/resources, while Nationalists got for free
However, amount of support was much smaller than Nationalists.
Reduced amount of support after 1938, when Reps weakiening
1936: 500 aircraft, 1938: 0 aircraft
International Brigades from nations
supporters of left ideologies, from US, Germany, etc
not trained, did not significantly helped
Therefore, lesser support, difference of support affected the defeat of Republicans.
Other factors
Strength of Nationalist themselves against Reps. were more significant?
Strong leadership
military unified under Franco
Contrast: Reps no leadership
extreme anarachist vs moderate communist May Day internal fight.
Economically stable than Republicans
Controlled areas with rich food production
Vietnam
P1: US intervention
talk about "why did america didnt win, even with this amount of support"
= had small effect to the war
Kennedy and Johnson (especially Johnson)
https://gyazo.com/00353124a78c178609e68b79f5337501
weakness
us forces do not know land
could not get coorporation from
P2: Communist Intervention
(still not publicly released much, so difficult to find)
before the 2nd civil war
Stalin in the first civil war: not much support, but did gave german weapons
China gave some support of weapons etc
after the gulf of tonkin
chinese support also escalated
while us broke buildings by the Rolling Thunder, china gave construction support
also send troops to protect North Vietnam instead, so that NVA could fight in the South Vietnam
Soviet Union
leader changed to Brezhnev
Kosygin visit to South Vietnam
sending alot of weapons later
by the late 1960s, more than three quarters of the military and technical equipment received by North Vietnam was coming from the Soviet Union.
also, it was not load, but aid (provided for free)
P3: Other factors
wekaness of ARVN
popularity of Ho
unpopularity of Diem,
Effectiveness of gurellia warfare
Possible Essay Questions
Resources
Notes